By Stephen Snyder of Ergo
US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton visited Algiers on Saturday and gave Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika a free pass on two major issues of contention between the two countries: his government?s upcoming rigged elections and his support for Bashar al-Assad in the worsening crisis in Syria.
In the midst of a regional tour to promote democracy-building and rally international support for intervention in Syria, Clinton?s sudden silence on these issues in Algeria spoke volumes. At the root of this silence is Algeria?s position as a cornerstone in the global oil and gas market.
Amid rising energy security concerns in the US and western Europe, Algeria?s growing importance as a provider of natural resources outweighed the Bouteflika government?s defiance on democratisation and Syria. Clinton?s lack of criticism signals Washington?s top priority in its relations with Algiers: finding common ground on energy even at the expense of political and security initiatives.
Clinton recognises the importance of keeping Algeria, an Opec member and critical link in the global energy supply chain, open to western business. Algeria is the seventh-largest supplier of oil to the US with nearly half a million barrels delivered daily. Through three trans-Mediterranean pipelines, Algeria also provides approximately 12 per cent of the European Union?s natural gas imports, the third-highest share behind only Russia and Norway. Without Algeria, Europe would be forced to increase its dependency on Russia, a notoriously unreliable supplier.
Washington is also keen to ensure western economic interests retain access to a lucrative market. Anadarko of the US alone accounts for nearly a quarter of Algeria?s oil production, making it the country?s largest foreign operator. Several other US and European energy companies, including oil majors BP, Conoco-Phillips, ENI, and Total, are also active in Algeria. On the heels of an energy boom in Algeria over the last decade ? national oil company Sonatrach?s revenues shot up 240% from 2001 to 2008 ? western firms are eager to keep the door to investment open.
US concerns over the security of its energy supply have only heightened Algeria?s strategic importance. Iran?s unpredictable foreign policy has Washington particularly nervous. The price of gasoline is already up 11 per cent from last year and crude has risen 6 per cent to $107 per barrel over the same span; Tehran?s threatened blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could spike oil prices by as much as 50 per cent. Iran?s ongoing sabre-rattling with Israel and halting of oil shipments to Britain and France last month has further raised tensions and elevated Algeria?s importance as an alternative energy supplier.
With this in mind, Clinton elected not to pressure the Bouteflika government over its stagnant democratization and support for the Assad regime ? two issues at the center of her foreign policy in north Africa.
Only hours after praising Tunisians for ?dislodg[ing] a dictator,? Secretary Clinton dined with Bouteflika, the lone north African autocrat to survive the Arab Spring thus far. Clinton can see that free and fair elections could ? whether due to disputed vote totals, widespread protests, or regime change ? spark an oil price surge akin to the one created by last year?s tumult in Libya. While the Algerian government claims that its upcoming May parliamentary elections will be a meaningful step toward democratic reform, it is more likely that the powerful military leaders will rig the ballot in order to maintain the status quo.
Similarly, only one day after calling for international partners to ?ratchet up pressure? on the Assad regime, Clinton declined to chide Algiers for its support of the Syrian government. Algeria has been the biggest impediment in the Arab League to taking collective action to stop the bloodshed. With no clear strategy for removing Assad, the US has little to gain in trying to shake Algeria from its pro-regime stance. Additionally, Clinton does not wish to put Algiers on the defensive and push it toward Damascus, a close ally of Tehran.
With energy in high demand, Secretary Clinton has little appetite for rankling a key supplier in Algeria. So long as tensions remain high in oil and gas markets, expect Algiers to continue to do as it pleases, knowing that Washington is too concerned about maintaining the flow of oil from a major energy provider.
Ergo, a global intelligence and advisory firm, is producing a series profiling the leading figures in politics, government, and business in Algeria and several other countries in the region.
Related reading:
Written in blood, FT review
The trouble with the Arab League, the World
Dreaming of a united north Africa, FT
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